Despite Pepsi Ads, Russia's Space Program Faces a Cloudy Future

by Michael Seidman

    Russia's space program is in deep trouble. Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union began in 1989, funding from all sources has fallen 80 percent and accidents have risen. Things are so bad that the Russian Space Agency's (RSA) director, Yuri Koptev, recently told Russia's Cabinet that his program might have to shut down the Mir space station.

    In this funding climate, the Russian space program has encountered scores of problems. In addition to some booster rocket failures and misplaced orbits, the program experienced a few high-profile troubles recently:

 -Since 1989, overall staffing levels have fallen by about two-thirds.

 -In November 1996 the ambitious Mars-96 probe's escape booster failed and the spacecraft fell into the Pacific Ocean.

 -In late February 1997 a malfunction in Mir's oxygen-generating equipment started a small fire on board the space station. Several reports following the incident said that a similar fire broke out in October 1994.

 -In March of this year, the Los Angeles Times reported that a malfunction in the air supply devices on Mir forced the station to resume use of the emergency generators that caused both fires.

    These accidents, however, do not represent the program's biggest problem. In January, RSA officials announced that work on the service module, Russia's major contribution to the International Space Station, had fallen a year behind schedule.

    The service module is a vital space station component. It serves to maintain the station's orbit during construction and provides quarters for the first construction crews. Under the original plans for the station, the service module's construction would start with the launch of a Russian-built, U.S.-financed power module followed by a U.S.-built pressure module. If Russia fails to build the service module, NASA and the U.S. Navy have designed a stopgap replacement component that would serve some of the service modules' functions. NASA has said that using the substitute module could cause the space station's construction to begin as much as eleven months behind schedule.

    In an effort to solve the problems, the United States announced an emergency $20 million loan to the RSA on February 6 of this year. This aid, however, might be too little too late. "I would prefer to have the Russians in as a full partner [on ISS], but we must ask whether we can wait any longer for them to decide whether to fund their part of the program," said Representative James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.), Chairman of the House Science Committee, who made a trip to Moscow in late February.

    The RSA recently began a search for private sector funding to keep the program alive. In March, the Russians launched an Israeli satellite into orbit. Russia used a converted SS-25 intercontinental ballistic missile to do the job at the bargain basement rate of $250,000. Western nations and corporations would have charged $400,000 to $1 million for the same service. In early February, Business Week reported a potential deal between the Russian Space Agency and a U.S. marketing firm, Space Marketing Inc. To raise funds for space flight, the Russians and Space Marketing would sell American businesses "sponsorship" of trips to Mir. The companies would then raffle the rights to travel into space. "You could milk [the contest] for six, nine months, then you have the exit strategy, with the civilian coming back," said Mike Lawson, president of Space Marketing.

    Plans also include sales of memorabilia such as T-shirts and videos. Lawson currently lists the price of sponsorship at $25 million.

    Russia has also sent a giant Pepsi can into space along with several cosmonauts. The Russians filmed a commercial showing cosmonauts floating alongside the can. Pepsi broadcasted the commercial on American TV and paid the Russians $5 million for their services.

    Such efforts at selling Russian Space Agency services, however, have yet to provide nearly enough money necessary to keep the program going. A "cheap" unmanned scientific mission costs in the neighborhood of $100 million and Russia does not have this kind of money.

    Unless current trends shift, the Russian space program may collapse in the near future. Economic strain in the former Soviet Union has reduced Russia's ability to funnel funding into the RSA, and no other nations have shown willingness to invest large sums in the troubled program. Things look bad for the RSA.

Michael Seidman is a freshman in the College of Arts and Sciences. He plans to major in biochemistry and will apply to the College Scholar program.